Strategies
Every rule set, and how it did on data it had never seen.
Paper Desk doesn't pick a strategy because a chart looks good. Each rule set is tuned on one stretch of real price history, then scored on the next stretch it was never shown, after estimated trading costs. Only that unseen stretch counts. Most fail, and that is the point of testing. Every figure on this page is a hypothetical backtest result, not real trading.
Latest test run
Partial run, 14 of 61 rule sets, real Yahoo daily bars, 31 Oct 2026
Rule sets tested
14
DIA, GLD, IWM, QQQM, SMH, SPY, XLF, XLK
Passed the gate
0
Needed before any real money
Not enough trades yet
13
The gate needs 60+ unseen trades
Rejected
1
Lost in the test or broke a limit on unseen data
Nothing has cleared the gate. The strongest lead is Momentum on QQQM at +0.41R a trade, but over only 24 unseen trades; the gate needs 60. Momentum on XLF lost money over 135 trades and was rejected. Several others broke the 8R drawdown limit or never traded.
The gate
A rule set has to clear all four on unseen data before it can go anywhere near real money. Paper trading doesn't need the gate; it is how more evidence is gathered.
Trades
60+
Fewer is luck, not evidence
Profit factor
1.3+
Dollars won per dollar lost
Average per trade
+0.15R or better
R = the amount risked on one trade
Worst drawdown
8R or less
The deepest losing stretch
What each family looks for
Trend hold
DailyStay long while price is above its 200-day average. Few trades. It is the buy-and-hold benchmark the others have to beat.
Exits: Price closes below the 200-day average.
Momentum
DailyBuy when the last 60 days were strong and price is above its 200-day average.
Exits: A stop a set number of daily ranges below entry, a profit target, or a time limit.
Dip in an uptrend
DailyIn a long-term uptrend, buy a sharp two-day oversold dip.
Exits: A bounce to target, a stop below the dip, or a few days' time limit.
Pullback to the average
DailyWhen the short average is above the long one, buy when price comes back to the short average and closes up.
Exits: Stop and target sized from the day's typical range.
Trend follow
Hourly / dailyBuy strength when the trend is up. Long only: the rules never short a stock.
Exits: A trailing stop, a target in multiples of the risk, or a time limit.
Range
Hourly / dailyWhen there is no trend, buy near the bottom of the recent range.
Exits: The middle or top of the range, or a stop just below it.
Hourly dip
HourlyIn an hourly uptrend, buy a two-bar oversold dip.
Exits: Same-day target or stop; nothing is held overnight on this one.
Opening range
5-minuteTrade a break of the first half hour's high, only with volume behind it.
Exits: Stop back inside the range, target in multiples of the risk, flat by the close.
Currency trend and range
HourlyThe same trend and range ideas on euro and Canadian dollar pairs, tested but not traded.
Exits: Stop and target from the hourly range.
Results, best first
Unseen-data results only, after estimated costs. A positive average with too few trades is a lead to keep testing, not a win. Past results are not a forecast.
Hypothetical results. These are simulated on past prices; no money was traded. They're made with hindsight, use estimated costs and fills, and come from testing many rule sets, so the best rows look better than they're likely to be. No account is likely to get similar results, and real trading often turns out quite differently. Not advice to trade any of these. More in the disclosures.
| Rule set | Market | Trades | Avg / trade | Profit factor | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum (QQQM) | QQQM · 1d | 24 | +0.41R | — | Not enough yet |
| Momentum (XLF) | XLF · 1d | 135 | -0.02R | 0.97 | Rejected |
| Range (XLF) | XLF · 1d | 1 | +0.91R | — | Not enough yet |
Showing the 3 best of 14. This page updates as the remaining rule sets finish testing.
Hear when a rule set passes the gate
One short note if anything clears the gate. The roadmap says what happens after that.
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